We now know that the draft US-Russian peace plan, which has been widely leaked, calls for giving Vladimir Putin’s Russia de facto sovereignty over the parts of Ukraine’s industrial eastern Donbas region that are currently under Ukrainian control.
What more is known about the manuscript, though, and who stands to gain the most from it? There are 28 main criteria, and on the surface, Ukraine might find some of them acceptable. Others seem ambiguous and imprecise.
A “total and complete comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe” with strong or trustworthy “security guarantees” for Kyiv and a call for early elections within 100 days would “confirm” Ukraine’s sovereignty. Elections might theoretically take place if a peace agreement is reached, even though they are now impossible in Ukraine due to martial law.
However, there is little information on who would offer security guarantees or how strong those guarantees might be. A NATO-style Article Five pledge to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on everyone is well beyond this. Kyiv would require more than a vague assurance to sign up.
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