According to PVM Energy analyst Tamas Varga, “the market discounts a possible escalation of the crisis between Iran and Israel.” It thinks any Israeli reprisal will be proportionate, partly because of pressure from the US and other countries to exercise moderation.
Varga told AFP that Iran wants to keep exporting crude oil, so it will also be cautious not to make things worse. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that more sanctions on Iran may be coming.
Since Washington unilaterally withdrew from a historic agreement that had offered sanctions relief in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear program in 2018, the country has already been subject to devastating US sanctions.
The imposition of sanctions, specifically targeting Iranian oil exports, may lead to a daily loss of oil supply ranging from 0.5 million to 1.0 million barrels.” Even with that, Iran’s daily production should be higher than in the middle of 2020, when US President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement.
In Varga’s assessment, the OPEC cartel’s spare oil capacity “should be sufficient to mitigate the impact of any supply disruption” brought on by Iran.
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