Almost any economist would tell you that US President Donald Trump has been taking chances with the most excellent economy in the world. They claim that his tariffs and immigration crackdown run the risk of causing “stagflation” similar to that of the 1970s, when a sudden oil shock led to stalled economy and skyrocketing prices, only this time the crisis would be self-inflicted.
The White House has equally resolutely rejected those worries, disparaging the experts and, in the instance of the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, dismissing her. The US central bank is paralyzed by uncertainty about how it will all unfold and is waiting for data to shed light on the situation before adjusting interest rates.
The number of discouraged workers is increasing, and job creation was slow in July and almost nonexistent in May and June. Trump fired the BLS commissioner after the August 1 employment data sent the stock market plunging and him into a panic.
Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, stated on social media a few days later that the economy was “on the precipice of a recession.” The economy has undoubtedly slowed; in the first half of this year, it grew at an annual pace of 1.2%, which is one percentage point slower than in 2024.
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