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How Likely is it That India and Pakistan will Go to Nuclear War?

However, the sequence of military reprisals, covert communications, and prompt international intervention subtly created the most deadly shadow in the region. Although the situation did not turn into a nuclear conflict, it served as a warning of how easily tensions in this region might raise the possibility of one.

Scientists have even simulated the ease with which everything may fall apart. A multinational team of experts’ 2019 study began with a terrifying scenario in which a 2025 terrorist attack on India’s parliament leads to a nuclear exchange with Pakistan.

Fears of a full-scale conflict were heightened six years later by a real-world standoff that was ended on Saturday by a truce mediated by the United States. It also brought up uncomfortable memories of how brittle regional stability can be.

Pakistan issued “dual signals” as the crisis worsened, announcing a National Command Authority (NCA) meeting and launching a military retaliation as a strategic reminder of its nuclear capacity. The NCA is in charge of managing the nation’s nuclear arsenal and its possible applications. We may never know if this action was intentional, symbolic, or a true warning. Additionally, it happened right after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio allegedly intervened to stop the escalation.

According to President Trump, the United States prevented a “nuclear conflict” rather than merely mediating a truce. “India will not be intimidated by nuclear threats; there is no tolerance for nuclear blackmail,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated in a speech to the nation on Monday.

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Wednesday, June 18, 2025

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