Doomsayers were ultimately defeated, and India flourished Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi responded to the impressive first-quarter GDP data that was released earlier this week on X, stating, “Yet again.” The data significantly exceeded expectations, but it also sparked controversy over its credibility.
The 7.8% figure appeared to be a positive development for the prime minister, who has recently been the target of intense student dissatisfaction regarding his government’s management of exam paper leaks and the increasing rate of youth unemployment.
Although those longstanding concerns remain unresolved, the better-than-expected growth print suggests his government may have successfully navigated the Middle East oil shock, despite its heavy reliance on imported crude.
India’s “cyclical growth recovery” has been evident for the past six months, as per Sajjid Chinoy, chief India economist at JP Morgan. This recovery was fuelled by a substantial fiscal stimulus, which included direct tax cuts in February of last year, a reduction of consumption taxes in September, and interest rates that have decreased by approximately 1.5% since early 2025. However, the question remained: Could India protect its recovery from the events in the Middle East? This is where the government deserves immense credit, Mr. Chinoy stated in an interview with India Today news channel.
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