One of the largest oil importers in the world, India, has benefited from Russia’s war-related disruption of the world’s oil markets for the past four years. Following the invasion of Ukraine, Russian crude was diverted from western markets to Indian refineries, frequently at alluring discounts. The deal has reduced the price of one of India’s largest imports and provided a plentiful supply of oil for its refiners. This deal is now posing a geopolitical concern.
On Wednesday, the US House of Representatives passed a bill granting President Donald Trump extensive authority to impose sanctions on Russia and tariffs of up to 100% on nations that purchase Russian gas and oil. Trump will now have the opportunity to sign it into law. Due to their significant purchases of Russian oil, China and India are among the most vulnerable. According to the think tank Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), between December 2022 and August 2026, China accounted for half of Russia’s crude exports, followed by India at 37%, Turkey at 5%, and the EU at 5%. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think tank, Russia delivered $40.8 billion, or 30.3%, of India’s $134.7 billion total crude import bill in fiscal 2026. Over half of India’s imports in July came from Russian crude.
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