The United States and Iran have compelling reasons to end the war, which is the best chance for the ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan. The largest barrier to their success is the complete lack of trust, the lack of any obvious points of agreement, and the fact that Israel, America’s full-fledged ally in the conflict, has greatly intensified its assault on Lebanon.
The conflict is already being discussed in the past tense by US President Donald Trump. He needs to leave now that he has declared victory. In addition to a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May and a state visit from King Charles later this month, he also has midterm elections scheduled for November. Trump also wants gas prices to return to their pre-war levels as America’s summer holiday season approaches. Elections, summits, and royal visits don’t go well with conflict.
The Iranian government wants the war to end for its own reasons. Its social media warriors are releasing AI films mocking Donald Trump, and it is still capable of launching drones and missiles. However, Iran has been severely harmed. The administration needs time to recover and will attempt to exploit the negotiations in Pakistan to bolster its position, but cities have reached a standstill economically. It would be a difficult task for the Pakistani middlemen who will be traveling between the two delegations. The two sides’ stated positions are as far apart as they can be.
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