Both the United States and Iran have said they would prefer not to go back to the war that has been on hold since the truce was established on 8 April. The two sides have not let the regular drumbeat of military exchanges between them derail the talks mediated by Pakistan, Qatar and others.
The U.S. still possesses formidable naval and aviation assets within striking distance of Iran. We may assume the Iranian regime will have maintained its forces on high alert and will be using the ceasefire to re-organise and repair damage done by the US and Israel.
The armed tension in and around the Gulf poses an obvious risk of mistake and misconception for both sides. The US is seeking to maintain pressure on the Tehran leadership to make concessions by showing that they are close and can do significant damage.
The Iranians are signalling to the US that their will to resist is undiminished and that they will strike American bases and the greater infrastructure of the Arab Gulf if they have to.
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